Summer heat killing COVID - What do Harvard and Stanford scientists say?
#16 - COVID can potentially spread in all weather conditions.
Our strategy for District Magistrates in India: COVID-19 is a war only Districts can fight.
If you are hoping that the incoming summer will allow us to relax social distancing, take a look at the image below.
A lot of nations in Asia near the equator have more than 10000 cases. The summer season in Iran and Australia has not prevented the spread, and both countries have significant outbreaks. Singapore, which is very close to the equator has about 12000 cases!
While some coronaviruses do exhibit a seasonal trend in their incidence, the properties of this novel coronavirus are not fully known.
The World Health Organisation suggests that the virus can spread in all climates. [Link]
I am sure seasonal variations in the virus’s behaviour will play a role in its spread. But compared with the effect we are having with social distancing, it will be a very minor influence. It may produce some marginal effects but these will not be a substitute for self-isolation.
— Michael Skinner, virologist at Imperial College, London. [The Guardian article]
How do other coronaviruses behave seasonally?
MERS and SARS, the two recent viruses which are related to the novel coronavirus did not show any seasonal variations in their spreading according to a report sent to the White House by National Academy of Sciences. [Report]
Another report from Harvard University does not seem optimistic about summer…
Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
— Marc Lipsitch, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard University
New viruses do not behave the same as old viruses, since most of the population is not immune. Old viruses can spread only when favourable conditions like dry winters are present, because only a few individuals are susceptible. Therefore, the seasonality depends not only the virus, but on the immunity of the population too. [Report]
If the intensity of COVID-19 decreases in summer, can social distancing be relaxed?
In short - No we can not. The majority of India’s population still remains susceptible and does not have immunity to this virus. Therefore, even if we see a slowing trend in summers, it will make a resurgence soon.
If a human coughs or sneezes enough virus “close enough to the next susceptible person, then temperature and humidity just won’t matter that much.”
— Dr. David Relman, Stanford University [NYT article]
Keeping the precautionary principle in mind, we can not relax social distancing in the summer heat - because we do not know enough about this virus, and can not let our guard down!
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